Lazy + Busy = This Post

The result of February being a down time in sports and an increased academic schedule results in this short and only relevant for about 2 more hours post. Sorry, but instead of writing another post about something I really don't care about (see: Michael Phelps' drug problem or A-rod's, well, drug problem), I am just copying and pasting an email I wrote to several MSU fans earlier today regarding the Michigan-Michigan State Basketball game. I will try and give a few quick thoughts about the game after it's conclusion to make it up to you.

Here are my predictions and keys for victory for tonight's game.

Michigan basketball is the very definition of a bubble team, but they are also a team that no number 1 seed wants to see sitting in a 9 seed. That said, I believe that today is their defining moment. Will they impress the selection committee with a strong victory at home against yet another top 10 ranked opponent, or will they fade into the oblivion that is the NIT?

I was asked about my thoughts on how Michigan could pull an upset today. I will do that, but first allow me to explain what I expect to happen. I honestly believe that Michigan will lose by 15 points today. Michigan’s weakness is, unfortunately for me, Michigan State’s strength: rebounding. Our short line-up and zone defense has resulted in second opportunities for opponents all year long. Because MSU will likely outrebound Michigan by 15-20 boards, Michigan likely has no chance to keep it close.

That said, lets talk a minute about the UCONN game. In that game, Michigan was outrebounded 46-21 and still managed to keep it close. The way they did that was 2 fold: (1) they intermittently ran a 2-3 zone to try and combat the Connecticut advantage in size; and, (2) they caused 17 turnovers by constantly changing defense types and through the solid defensive play of Zack Novak and C.J. Lee. What killed Michigan was that they shot below 35% from three and UCONN (a team that does not shoot the 3 very well) made 6 three pointers.

While State should expect to see a steady mix of 1-3-1 zone, 2-3 zone, and man-to-man, I respect State’s outside game more than Connecticut. Because of this fact, Michigan will likely be forced to play mostly man defense. That plays to state’s favor with their advantage in size and rebounding ability.

So, to sum up. Here is what Michigan needs to do to win:

1. Shoot 35% or above from three. (likely meaning they will make at least 12 three pointers)
2. < 20 rebounding differential
3. Cause double digit turnovers.

Again, all 3 of these are not likely. Michigan’s three point shooting has not been good as of late, mostly a result of Lavel Lucas Perry losing confidence in his shot. In addition causing turnovers is difficult to do when you are trying to steal from a very good ball handler in Kalin Lucas.

So, while I am not looking positively towards this game, I am still excited. It really is do or die; win and Michigan is in.