Baseball Prediction Post coming soon.  I am holding off until the start of SPring Training though, even though it is already written.  Then i can let some trades happen and see what comes together for certain teams.  I doubt my awesome predictions will change though!  

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Needs and Luxuries: Detroit Lions

UPDATE: The Lions seem content to get rid of Shaun Rogers anyway possible. We will be lucky to get a 3rd or 4th rounder for him. Great.... Well this post is now worthless. I cannot wait to write about how stupid Matt Millen and William Clay Ford are.

Offense

QB: Jon Kitna/Drew Staton

RB: Kevin Jones

FB: Will we actually use one this year? Casey Fitzsimmons/Jon Bradley

WR: Roy Williams/ Calvin Johnson/Shaun McDonald/Mike Furrey

TE: Campbell/McHugh

LT: Jeff Backus

LG: Edwin Mulitalo

C: Dominic Raiola

RG: Petermann

RT: ???

Defense

DE: Dewayne White/????

DT: Cory Redding/Shaun Rogers

Linebackers: Ernie Sims/???/???

Safeties: Daniel Bullocks/Gerald Alexzander

CB: Fernando Bryant/Stanley Wilson/ ??

ST

K: Jason Hanson

P: Nick Harris

PR/KR: Furrey/Calhoun

Needs:

Oh, where to begin. This team could probably use an upgrade in every position available. However, they did show some promise. Maybe its not that far off, but it sure seems that way.

The first need is 20-30 pounds off of Shaun Rogers’ body. I really like this guy, he can be a force. But man is he a head case. He is clearly our best player and it would be in Millen’s best interest to keep him here blowing up Centers and guards. Marinelli needs to lay down the law on this guy and make sure he loses weight and can play more often than every other play. When Rogers played well, the Lions usually won. Just as equal to blame is Cory Redding. He is getting a huge paycheck and was not even close to worth it. Whenever Rogers was in the game, he was usually facing a double team, which should have allowed Redding to take advantage of the 1 on 1 matchups in the middle. Last year he played like a pro bowler (think that Atlanta game where he single handedly shut down Mike Vick), this year he played like crap. I certainly think that Redding can be that player we saw again, but he needs help. He needs Rogers to be a force and play almost every play. But he also needs help on the Ends.

Dewayne White was a nice surprise this year, until the triceps injury he sustained recovering a fumble (a perfect example of the Lions stupid luck with injuries). He is a lock for next year. If we can acquire a great DE through the draft or free agency, he could have a good year.

Which brings us to Linebackers. Uhhh.... This is by far the biggest need on the Lions. Our Middle linebacker must be the most hated player in Detroit (move out of the way Neifi Perez!), and we all know he can’t recover a fumble to save his life. Boss Bailey has never really done anything except take up space, but is okay in coverage. He is a free agent this year, but could be back and could be a decent option. Ernie Sims is a great weak side linebacker. He also is a lock. But if the Lions want serious help on defense they need some more guys who play like this guy does.

Secondary, is almost as bad as our linebacking corps. However, injuries were a problem in this area, so I am gonna be the one to cut them some slack. Fernando Bryant has been a solid corner who has played really well the last two years. I think he is a lock again to stay where he is. Daniel Bullocks was injured in the preseason and could have been much better player than Gerald Alexander (remember how Kevin Curtis made him look like he was running in glue?). Bullucks is a better pass defender than Alexander, while Gerald is a decent run defender. The problem is Kenoy Kennedy is also a better run defense guy. I don’t think the Lions will or can do much in this area. Safety will be played by those 3 in some combination; Bullock should be a nice addition though. The problem is corners. We have no corners who can play good man to man on good wide receivers. Marinelli’s scheme is a zone cover 2 coverage but it sure would be nice to have someone on the corner who can match up. I realize that Champ Bailey’s don’t come around all the time, but Asante Samuel does come around this year.

On offense the Lions need to figure out what they are going to do at running back. Kevin Jones is battling yet another serious injury, TJ Duckett is a free agent and is Brian Calhoun ever going to play for this team?

Obviously Offensive line is always a concern. The Lions will never admit Jeff Backus isn’t that great so he will stay, Mulitalo is a solid guard, and Steven Petermann played pretty well even though no one has ever heard of him. RT and C could certainly be upgraded. I like the passion Raiola plays with and Marinelli and Culletto seem to like him. I could see the Lions using a draft pick on RT, especially if they cannot resign Woody who played well at RT at the end of this year.

Lastly, the Lions need a new GM and a new owner, but that’s a topic for another day.

Luxuries:

Are there any?

I guess Wide Receiver is a luxury, especially now that Martz and his love of 4 wide receivers is gone. But the only player with any trade value is Roy Williams. Plus we all know how well Matt Millen pulls off trades (yes, we actually traded Dre Bly for Tatum Bell and George Foster). There are a lot of teams who would probable love a big #1 wide out, but a lot of teams won this year without a good wide receiver corp at all (Jacksonville, Tennessee, Tampa, Seattle), which could taint the value of a great player like Roy. Plus, is Calvin Johnson ready to be the primary option of this offense in his second year?

I guess you could call Quarterback a luxury, but neither Jon Kitna and Drew Staton have any trade value. By the way, what is with this love affair with Drew Staton? Does Matt Millen watch one college football game a year and it happened to be MSU-Northwestern in 2006? Just for the record, David Harris had a great rookie season for the Jets... (what was our biggest weakness again?)

Actions

The Lions have basically 7 picks. You might be able to get two more for trades of Shaun Rogers and Roy Williams, but the picks might be lower than what those players are worth. The Lions will be forced to find players in free agency. The problem is that Detroit has such a horrible history of being a joke in this league that we are probably the last place any top free agents want to play. We with either have to overpay or sign players that are not the best at their position. Here is my analysis anyway.

If the Lions are serious about winning and improving their defense, Asante Samuel is a must sign at any cost. Mike Doss or Marcus Trufant are okay players who might be available, but not even close to the shut down level that Samuel has reached. Samuel would make our secondary go from horrible to pretty good on paper. Stanley Wilson would be a very good nickel corner. Signing Samuel means that the Lions will not be able to sign really anyone else of any real value. The rest of the improvement will have to be through the draft.

The Lions need to sign or draft at least 1 linebackers and 1 defensive end in addition to adding a solid corner. My hope is that Vernon Gholston of Ohio State somehow falls to us, but it is very unlikely. Derrick Harvey is someone who will probably be around at pick 15 and a possibility. Otherwise, it could be very wise to grab Dan Connor in the first or Shawn Crable in the second (assuming Keith Rivers is gone before 15).

The Lions probably will not use a first or second round pick on DE considering they wasted that pick (yes, wasted. I know, I know i actually had the nerve to suggest Hawaii isnt known as a school where good DE’s come from) on Alama-Francis last year. The team and most scouts claim he is raw but has potential because he started playing football very late. So, sadly, we might have to suffer through another year of watching Kalimba Edwards get manhandled and never even touch an opposing quarterback’s jersey.

Some mock drafts slate us taking Jeff Otah from Pitt. He is 6-6, 340 with surprising mobility for his size. This could be a good pick, given how horrible our running game was last year, but I think the bigger need is Defense.

We could also take Aqib Talib from Kansas, if we can’t get Samuel. He was a great playmaker at corner for Kansas.

The fact is Millen really needs to remember where he came from. For some reason his philosophy as a GM is completely against what you would think an old defensive lineman would think. He goes after wide receivers and finesse players. Get some attitude in this team again. Go after big strong linebackers, and shut down corners. Make a splash Millen. If you cant get Samuel go after Lance Briggs. Bring in a big name who is proven. Stop falling in love with players who strung a few good games together right before their contract expired (Woody, Redding, Edwards, Demulling).

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I am beginning to feel like I am not a very good blogger, because all of my posts look so positive. Just wait, my Lions post is coming soon. Believe me, nothing but Fire and Brimstone on that topic. Today’s post has so much to it, that I might have to break it up into multiple posts, because it is such a large and big topic. And, also a favorite topic of mine.

Today I want to discuss the future of the Tigers single most important player. One that hasn’t even taken 1 swing in a Tigers uniform.

Miguel Cabrera is the Tigers franchise. It will be before the All Star break that he is the face of the Detroit Tigers (along side Justin Verlander). He will be a fan favorite. He will have amazing offensive numbers, and he will be one of the most popular athletes in Detroit.

That is, given that the Tigers can keep him in Detroit for longer than two years.

As much as I realize that Baseball is a team game, and as much as I realize just how incredibly important pitching is, Miguel Cabrera will still sell more jerseys and tickets than anyone else. Verlander threw a no hitter, Curtis Granderson will probably score a ton of runs, but as we all know Chicks dig the long ball. Its Miggy’s power that will make him the franchise player.

I really do not want to get into the financial aspect of signing him at this point, because i fear it will spur me off into another, “I hate the Yankees” tangents that I so love to set out upon. But what I do want to talk about is just how incredibly important Miguel Cabrera now is to the Tigers organization and how devastating it would be if we lost him.

Firstly, you all know the Tigers sacrificed everything they had from AAA down to get him. Our best hitting prospect is Scott Sizemore (and no he is not related to Grady, so that is not a good thing) or Jeff Larish. Perhaps these players could really make some big strides in their abilities, but most scouts are predicting these players to be nothing more than average Major League Players if they ever get here. Also, Sizemore played at Single-A West Michigan last summer and has a long way to go before making the jump to the majors. Miguel Cabrera is already a superstar at the age of most prospects. The contract Cabrera will likely get will be 6 (maybe 7) years long. Which is also important because outside of catcher, third base is the weakest position the Tigers have in their farm system. If you sign Cabrera long term, the need for top prospects is lower. The Tigers will already have their superstar to build around. They will their clean up hitter locked up for 6-7 years. Third base will not be a position of need for a long time, which will allow Dave Dombrowski and David Chad to find the best available players, instead of filling a need (like the desperate need for third basemen and catchers now).

Secondly, the Tigers have a lot of older position players. Obviously, Cabrera and Granderson do not count but the rest of the starters are not young. The main concern being Gary Sheffield. I love Gary, but injuries and age are a big concern around him these days. Magglio seems older than he really is because of his history with knee problems, but hopefully that is a worry of the past with the season he had last year. Obviously, Pudge is ancient in catcher years and also on the option year of his contract. I do not see Pudge as a Tiger next year especially because of Dombrowski’s comments about his strong desire to see Inge try catching again. Guillen is not young, but still will be around for a while (by the way, put it in stone that Guillen is gonna have a great year this year). But having young players like Cabrera and Granderson around allows you to take bigger risks on aging superstars like the Tigers have. Prospects also allow you to take these risks, but having young superstars already there just eases the worry all that much more.

Thirdly, If you dont get him, someone else will. Likely in the American League. In the National League there is LA, Chicago and the Mets who could pay his salary. There are a lot more in the AL. So, my guess is if you dont get him, you are looking at facing him in the playoffs.

Basically, my argument peaks with this analogy. If the Tigers cannot sign Cabrera because they just believe he is too expensive or whatever, where do they go now? In a few years, Sheffield, Maggs, Pudge, and Kenny are all gone and no Cabrera. They have no more internal options. Free agency is gonna be tough, and they have no more prospects left to trade to try and get great players. They might be a decent team, but probably not a playoff team. Just the addition of Cabrera probably puts them in playoff contention. Cabrera is a MVP. He is probably the addition of 7-8 wins a season. He is one of the top 5 players in the game. If the Tigers want to keep winning without having down years, Cabrera is the centerpiece of the master plan.

Not to mention Cabrera will sell tickets, expensive tickets. The Willis-Cabrera trade sold 4,500 more season tickets since the trade. People will pay to see this kid play. They will pay for the 11 dollar beers.

I know the Tigers want to sign him, and I know they arent stupid about how much to expect to pay him. I also know that Illitch isn’t afraid to spend a little money on this team. People will keep buying tickets if the Tigers keep winning, and they will keep winning built around great players like Verlander, Granderson and most importantly Miguel Cabrera. But if he wants to keep winning and keep filling that stadium, he has to spend the big money and keep this kid here for a long time.

Miguel Cabrera will have a statue created for him in centerfield at Comerica if he stays a Tiger.

Put it in Stone

(post "Our Franchise: All About the Money" coming soon).

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Alright, i changed the name of the website to "Put It In Stone".  Because the old name was gay, and because I am gonna try to make predictions in this blog.  

Put it in stone is a phrase that I heard first on a Detroit radio show called "The Sports Inferno" now called "Valenti and Foster."  Basically, callers would call in and make predictions and "put it in stone" so if they were right they could call back and say "See I told you so!"  Basically, I am doing the same.  I will put my opinions in stone by writing them in this blog.  Anyone else can put their own opinions in stone by commenting on my posts.  Call me stupid, tell me how wrong I am, make your own opinions.  

I hope it works out and you like it.  

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Just wear a Tigers hat, or shirt for a day and somebody will tell you their prediction about Dontrelle Willis.

I have been meeting a lot of new people in the last year and a half. A lot of people like to talk to me about baseball because I am using donning some piece of Tigers memorabilia. Or somebody in class looks at my Miguel Cabrera background and comments. But, no matter who it is I meet or talk to about Major League Baseball, they all want to tell me what they think about Dontrelle Willis.

Let me just list some of these outrageous predictions:

“Dontrelle is gonna have an ERA over 5.”

“D-Train is gonna have a horrible year, why did they resign him?”

“Dontrelle Willis is done, he will never be the same pitcher. Pitching 200+ innings when you are young ruins an arm.”

Or my favorite, from Bill Simonson (Huge, from the Huge Show), “Dontrelle is gonna win 22 games and win the Cy Young.”

Hey maybe they are right. He is going from the NL to the AL; he is coming off a bad year. But, this guy is just a few years removed from being one of the most promising pitchers in the game.

I’m not worried about Dontrelle. In fact, he is one of the least of my worries about this team. Dontrelle is a solid, young pitcher with a lot to offer. He is left handed, only 25, and an innings eater. I am way more worried about how Jeremy Bonderman will bounce back from the elbow injury and that weird inability to get out of the first inning unscathed. I am worried about Kenny Rogers staying healthy at age 43 and getting back to the ALDS/ALCS form of 2006. I am worried about how our bullpen will be put together, and how they will survive without the dominating force of Joel Zumaya. I am worried about how Joel will do after not pitching for basically a year. But I am not afraid about Dontrelle.

Dontrelle said he was hurt last year, and he tried to pitch through the pain. I like the dedication, but I have trouble believing that. He might have been hurt, and his numbers, velocity, and coaches seem to back him up. But I really dont feel like if the organization knew he was hurt they wont risk their ace.

What I think was more of an influence was the constant trade rumors and lack of fans in the stadium in Miami. He sounded so thrilled to be traded to a new team. So, I think he will bounce back.

My prediction? Well, it really doesn’t matter does it? But, I think he will have an ERA in the low 4’s, pitch 200 innings, and win 17 games.

What do I base this prediction on? Firstly, talent wise, this kid should be a top of the rotation kind of guy with an ERA in the low 3’s. Based on talent alone, I think Dontrelle can match up to the big hitters of the AL central. Secondly, motivation. The Tigers have high expectations and a great fan base that will pack that stadium. Third, we have one of the best, if not the best catchers in the game at handling young pitchers and calling games. Fourth, Chuck Hernandez and Jim Leyland. We have a great pitching coach and a great manager. Leyland has an amazing ability to know exactly when to keep pitchers throwing and when to take them out. This will certainly lower his ERA. Lastly, and most importantly, Kenny Rogers. Kenny will certainly be a mentor to Dontrelle. They are both lefties and he can offer some really valuable advice to a young pitcher. All the young pitchers seem to confide in this guy and hold on to everything he says. Plus, if Gil Meche can be a good AL Central pitcher as a number 1, Dontrelle can easily be a great pitcher as a #4

Dontrelle will progress and evolve a lot in Spring Training. He isn’t going to win a Cy Young and wont make the All Star team. But he is going to be one of the best 4th pitchers in the game. He strengthens a rotation that is looking for an identity outside of Justin Verlander. He is gonna eat innings and help keep our awful bullpen watching the game instead of pitching in it. That fact will be huge in the first half of the year when we dont have Zumaya.

So don’t listen to the haters who think Dontrelle Willis is going to be the downfall of the mighty Detroit Tigers; Dontrelle is gonna be great. He will be very active on the team and a fun personality that the fans will love. I’m more eagerly waiting to see how Jeremy Bonderman responds after a dreadful second half.

I am confident in my prediction because Dave Dombroski is confident in Dontrelle Willis. I have the ultimate trust in Dombroski and that is why I feel confident saying Dontrelle will be great this year and win us a lot of games. Why else would Dombroski extend his contract?

Low 4’s ERA, 17 wins, you will love watching him pitch.

Put it in Stone.

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Go ahead, read that headline again. I mean it, in fact I am carving it in stone right now, to remind you what i said.

"But Nate? How can one of the best Sophomore quarterbacks in the country transferring be a good thing?" Simple, it opens up the starting spot for Tyrelle Pryor.

Tyrelle Pryor, if you have been living under a stone for the last few weeks, months or years, is the best dual threat high school quarterback in the country. He's basically Vince Young, only this time he is interested in playing for Michigan.

I know, I know. Mallett got lots of experience playing for Henne when he was hurt, and he has a great arm, and showed some good play making ability by moving around in the pocket, but Mallett has nothing compared to Prior. Firstly, Mallett got experience in reading college defenses, yes, but he has just as much or less experience in the spread offense that Rich Rodriguez is bringing to Michigan football as Pryor. Pryor has already played in that system in high school and he will be ready to be the main play caller for Michigan next year. Second, Its true that Mallett has a gun for an arm, but from what i have heard and read Pryor can throw 50 yards from his knees. Not too shabby. And as for play making, can you really even compare the two? Pryor is fast and shifty. And from what my scout, Brian, tells me, Tyrelle Pryor is a "very good athlete." Everyone was impressed with Mallett just because he doesnt have cement in his shoes like the last two starters at Michigan (Henne, Navarre).

Here is the main difference between Mallett and Pryor, Mallett will be only as good as the players around him, Tyrelle Pryor is as good as he wants to be. If Mallett doesnt have wide receivers who can get open, Michigan fans would see a lot of sacks, or 3 yard quarterback improvisation runs. Put Pryor back there, and suddenly if those wide receivers don't get open, you have an athlete ready to break open a big gain. Pryor can win games, Mallett could easily lose them by taking a sack or forcing a throw. Pryor will be able to run and get those first downs if a play breaks down.

Don't get me wrong, Mallett will probably be a great quarterback, and likely playing on Sundays someday. But the college game is different from the NFL. In college, spread offenses and mobile quarterbacks seem to the fad that wins these days.

Here is what i think it comes down to. If Michigan was able to keep Mallett, would defensive coordinators really have to game plan, on how to contain him? No, but the opposite is true for Pryor. Now, Coordinators need to try and get pressure, or keep a QB spy watching him. He will open up running lanes for McGuffie/Grady. He will make it easier for Greg Mathews and whoever else to get open just because D-Coordinators will be afraid of his playmaking ability. Maybe, Pryor's arm wont be as big of a deep threat as Mallett, but I can live with that with all the upside of his legs.

But back to my argument, Mallett leaving is great because Pryor hasn't committed to Michigan yet. He is trying to decide between Michigan and The School everyone hates. I think Michigan already has an edge, because Rich Rod runs a more familiar offense. But the kicker is gonna be, something Ohio State cannot offer, the starting quarterback position in 2008. If Mallett was here, Pryor might be waiting 3 years to start, or splitting time with Mallett. Now, we can say, look kid, you can run this offense from day one, its yours. Starting as a freshman in front of the biggest crowd in the country has to be thrilling for an 18 year old kid.

When Pryor commits to Michigan, he may not say it is because of Mallett leaving, but it will be a factor.

Michigan's offense is going to be exciting next year and new. There are certainly going to be a lot of new faces. But Tyrelle Prior will be leading that offense, and he will be impressive.

So Thanks Ryan, have a good career in Tennesee or Arkansas or where ever. We wont miss you.

Put it in stone.

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