Just wear a Tigers hat, or shirt for a day and somebody will tell you their prediction about Dontrelle Willis.
I have been meeting a lot of new people in the last year and a half. A lot of people like to talk to me about baseball because I am using donning some piece of Tigers memorabilia. Or somebody in class looks at my Miguel Cabrera background and comments. But, no matter who it is I meet or talk to about Major League Baseball, they all want to tell me what they think about Dontrelle Willis.
Let me just list some of these outrageous predictions:
“Dontrelle is gonna have an ERA over 5.”
“D-Train is gonna have a horrible year, why did they resign him?”
“Dontrelle Willis is done, he will never be the same pitcher. Pitching 200+ innings when you are young ruins an arm.”
Or my favorite, from Bill Simonson (Huge, from the Huge Show), “Dontrelle is gonna win 22 games and win the Cy Young.”
Hey maybe they are right. He is going from the NL to the AL; he is coming off a bad year. But, this guy is just a few years removed from being one of the most promising pitchers in the game.
I’m not worried about Dontrelle. In fact, he is one of the least of my worries about this team. Dontrelle is a solid, young pitcher with a lot to offer. He is left handed, only 25, and an innings eater. I am way more worried about how Jeremy Bonderman will bounce back from the elbow injury and that weird inability to get out of the first inning unscathed. I am worried about Kenny Rogers staying healthy at age 43 and getting back to the ALDS/ALCS form of 2006. I am worried about how our bullpen will be put together, and how they will survive without the dominating force of Joel Zumaya. I am worried about how Joel will do after not pitching for basically a year. But I am not afraid about Dontrelle.
Dontrelle said he was hurt last year, and he tried to pitch through the pain. I like the dedication, but I have trouble believing that. He might have been hurt, and his numbers, velocity, and coaches seem to back him up. But I really dont feel like if the organization knew he was hurt they wont risk their ace.
What I think was more of an influence was the constant trade rumors and lack of fans in the stadium in Miami. He sounded so thrilled to be traded to a new team. So, I think he will bounce back.
My prediction? Well, it really doesn’t matter does it? But, I think he will have an ERA in the low 4’s, pitch 200 innings, and win 17 games.
What do I base this prediction on? Firstly, talent wise, this kid should be a top of the rotation kind of guy with an ERA in the low 3’s. Based on talent alone, I think Dontrelle can match up to the big hitters of the AL central. Secondly, motivation. The Tigers have high expectations and a great fan base that will pack that stadium. Third, we have one of the best, if not the best catchers in the game at handling young pitchers and calling games. Fourth, Chuck Hernandez and Jim Leyland. We have a great pitching coach and a great manager. Leyland has an amazing ability to know exactly when to keep pitchers throwing and when to take them out. This will certainly lower his ERA. Lastly, and most importantly, Kenny Rogers. Kenny will certainly be a mentor to Dontrelle. They are both lefties and he can offer some really valuable advice to a young pitcher. All the young pitchers seem to confide in this guy and hold on to everything he says. Plus, if Gil Meche can be a good AL Central pitcher as a number 1, Dontrelle can easily be a great pitcher as a #4
Dontrelle will progress and evolve a lot in Spring Training. He isn’t going to win a Cy Young and wont make the All Star team. But he is going to be one of the best 4th pitchers in the game. He strengthens a rotation that is looking for an identity outside of Justin Verlander. He is gonna eat innings and help keep our awful bullpen watching the game instead of pitching in it. That fact will be huge in the first half of the year when we dont have Zumaya.
So don’t listen to the haters who think Dontrelle Willis is going to be the downfall of the mighty Detroit Tigers; Dontrelle is gonna be great. He will be very active on the team and a fun personality that the fans will love. I’m more eagerly waiting to see how Jeremy Bonderman responds after a dreadful second half.
I am confident in my prediction because Dave Dombroski is confident in Dontrelle Willis. I have the ultimate trust in Dombroski and that is why I feel confident saying Dontrelle will be great this year and win us a lot of games. Why else would Dombroski extend his contract?
Low 4’s ERA, 17 wins, you will love watching him pitch.
Put it in Stone.
2 comments:
I personally agree with almost everything Sportel said. Mostly because we formulated some of this opinion together last weekend. So I want to expand on the Bonderman issue. First of all I would like to say that I really like Jeremy and I think he is going to rebound this year from that crazy "can't get out of the first inning" funk he was in last year. He has an entire off season to work with Chuck Hernandez and Kenny is always good for some advice.
The biggest concern I have for the rotation and bullpen is definately their undeniable ability to be prone to weird, unexpected injuries. Mostly this will include Kenny and Zumaya. I think Kenny rushed too much last year to get back from injury to help try to win the Central which ultimately did him in for most of the season. Joel Zumaya is a bigger concern for me. Ever since his rookie year he has always had some nick knack wrong with him and never seems to be himself even when he claims to be healhty, ie his velocity last year never getting over the mid 90's. As much as it pains me to say it he needs to give up the guitar hero and focus on getting healthy.
So, if everyone stays healthy, I like Dontrelle to win 17 or 18 pitching in the 4 hole against mostly other teams garbage pitchers with a rotation at his disposal that other teams would die for. But if Kenny or anyone else gets injured above him (heres hoping Justin stays healthy all year) I don't like him pitching any earlier in the rotation this year strictly due to all the change that is happening around him. If a long drawn out injury happens we can all hope for 12 wins max.
Put it in stone.
i think you just have to take it simply. throw out the idea of era. the tigers have the best line-up in baseball by far. as long as you have a strong bullpen, your starters era dosn't matter. mr. willis is your third or fourth pitcher, correct. no matter who pitches in those spots 12 wins is reasonable. i understand every once in a while a fausto carmona will go 19-8, but you can't be heart broken if he doesn't win 15. most teams would love to have a number two pitcher to win 15. the tigers have a strong shot at 3 playersto get there. if rogers can stay healthy, all 5 have a shot. but you are a fan, so i don't blame you for dreaming big. i think prior is gonna be back to his old form....
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